Market Update for the Week August 24 - 28
It was a five day consecutive gains that took the Sensex close to the psychological barrier of 16000 points and Nifty pass 4700 points. Both the benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty recorded modest gains of 4.5% with Nifty closing at a new 2009 high. The BSE Mid Cap and the BSE Small Cap continued to outperform the broader indices for the fourth consecutive week recording significant gains of 5.5% and 7.7% respectively.
Market Indices
28th August, 2009
21st August, 2009
% Change
BSE Sensex
15,922.34
15,240.83
4.47%
NSE Nifty
4732.35
4,528.80
4.49%
BSE Mid Cap
5,863.70
5,559.32
5.48%
BSE Small Cap
6,961.76
6,462.98
7.72%
While all the sectoral indices posted gains, Realty, Consumer Durables and IT were the star performers for the week posting gains between 8% and 11%.
August 31, 2009
BSE Sectoral Indices
28th August, 2009
21st August, 2009
% Change
Realty
4,288.94
3,868.14
10.88%
Consumer Durables
3,299.01
3,049.95
8.17%
IT
4,268.93
3,954.18
7.96%
Technology
3,112.13
2,908.49
7.00%
Capital Goods
13,331.37
12,481.76
6.81%
Auto
5,815.07
5,537.94
5.00%
O&G
9,944.84
9,500.59
4.68%
Health Care
3,932.85
3,789.50
3.78%
Metal
12,659.27
12,225.72
3.55%
Power
3,002.30
2,899.77
3.54%
FMCG
2,586.77
2,529.47
2.27%
PSU
8,382.12
8,221.13
1.96%
Bankex
8,403.71
8,287.61
1.40%
The mood remained upbeat when markets started the week on a positive note backed by strong global cues. The markets saw some mixed macro economic cues. The core index for the month of July grew at an unexpected low rate of 1.8%. This drop in the growth rate was mainly attributed to high base effect and fall in the production of crude oil and refined petroleum products. While core index accounts for close to 27% of IIP index, the IIP numbers for the month of July grew by 7% which came as a pleasant surprise and boosted the sentiments in the markets. The inflation for the week shot up sharply to -0.95% owing to high food prices on concerns of weak monsoons and fears of drought. CLSA’s upgrade on Infosys boosted the entire IT pack which posted hefty gains of close to 8%. The foreign trade policy that was announced provided gems and textile industry the much sought after relief by giving some incentives to boost the exports.
Market Forecast for the week Aug 31 – Sep 4
The market entered the September series with an impressive rollover of positions. The September series future saw rollover of 76% which is the highest since February 2009. Hence there has been a considerable build of positions in the September series with most of the stock futures trading at a premium. All this indicates that we might have a good September series. Moreover Nifty managed the close above the psychological level of 4700 which is a good sign for the markets. However, the market would keenly be watching the GDP data for the first quarter of this fiscal. Going by the macro economic data and positive forecast made by the prime minister and finance minister over the strength of the Indian economy, we expect the markets to remain strong going forward. The markets would also be watching the listing of NHPC on the bourses to decide the course for future upcoming IPOs. We expect the Nifty to trade between 4700 and 4900 with a positive bias.